According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, although the second half of 2009 saw obvious shipment growth and the overall DSL industry is expected to see further progress in 2010, the problem of component shortages in the DSL industry remains. Moreover, various contract manufacturers have placed excessive orders for chipsets, which has posed a heavy burden on the chipset suppliers. Furthermore, due to conservative market outlook, chipset suppliers have been adjusting their shipment strategies even in the first quarter of 2010, which has affected actual chipset shipments. In addition, due to the Lunar New Year holiday in the first quarter, shipments of chipsets and other components as well as operations of production lines were expected to be affected. Therefore, it is projected that Taiwanese DSL CPE industry shipment volume will drop about 16.0% to 12.37 million units in the first quarter of 2010, with shipment value reaching US$326.5 million. In the second quarter, with the results of telecom bid projects revealed, it is forecasted that shipment volume will pick up and rise to approximately 13.64 million units, with shipment value reaching US$358.3 million.
In the second half of 2010, with the commencement of shipments for bid projects won in the first half, Taiwanese DSL CPE manufacturers are expected to see considerable shipment growth. Overall, the full-year shipment volume is expected to be around 55.05 million units in 2010, growing 7.1% compared with 2009. DSLAM shipment volume is expected to reach about 2.73 million ports in full-year 2010.
With the global economic recovery in the second half of 2009, demand for telecom and broadband equipment was on the rise owing to the ongoing deployment of network infrastructure worldwide as well as the emergence of application services in the broadband market. Although the growth of service subscribers has not yet returned to previous levels, operators have made considerable efforts in attracting new subscribers while managing to consolidate their existing subscriber base. Therefore, in addition to the shipments postponed to the second half, telecom operators added a considerable number of new orders as well, substantially boosting the shipment performance of the Taiwanese DSL industry in the second half of 2009. Taiwanese DSL CPE industry shipment volume reached 14.87 million units in the fourth quarter of 2009, growing 18.1% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Taiwanese DSL CPE shipment value arrived at US$394.9 million, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 24.6%.
As network deployment in emerging markets was accelerated in light of economic recovery and the subscriber base continued to grow, Taiwanese manufacturers' ODM and OEM shipments which had been postponed due to the economic downturn were started anew. Consequently, the share of value-line wired DSL modem and wired DSL router shipments in the Taiwanese DSL CPE industry's overall shipment grew to 32.5%. Demand for wireless DSL routers continued to increase; boosted by Chinese branded vendors' orders, Taiwanese wireless DSL router shipment volume saw roughly 11.4% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter and accounted for 41.6% of the overall shipment volume. Owing to the recovery of economy in Europe, major European telecom operators began increasing their IAD orders. Therefore, IAD shipment volume grew by 10.9% sequentially and nearly 20% year-on-year, with shipment share reaching 26.0%. Moreover, as the demand for integrated Wi-Fi 11n products was on the rise in Europe, the ASP (Average Selling Price) of IAD increased to US$41.8.
The ASP of wired DSL modems and wired DSL routers dropped to US$10.1 and US$12.3, respectively, nearing the lowest level acceptable by manufacturers. Although Wi-Fi 11n has not yet become mainstream, some manufacturers have increased the share of 11n wireless DSL routers in their overall shipments, thereby preventing their ASP from further declining. In the fourth quarter of 2009, Taiwanese DSL CPE ASP stood at US$26.6, inching up 1.3% year-on-year. Taiwanese DSLAM shipment volume, meanwhile, merely reached 688,000 ports in the fourth quarter.
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Table 1 |
Taiwanese DSL Industry Shipment Volume, 1Q 2008 - 4Q 2009 |
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Unit: Thousand |
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|
1Q08 |
2Q08 |
3Q08 |
4Q08 |
1Q09 |
2Q09 |
3Q09 |
4Q09 |
|
DSL CPE |
15,539 |
14,791 |
13,290 |
12,085 |
11,515 |
11,921 |
13,081 |
14,867 |
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DSLAM |
1,225 |
1,167 |
1,144 |
1,086 |
800 |
698 |
627 |
688 |
|
Total |
16,764 |
15,958 |
14,434 |
13,171 |
12,315 |
12,619 |
13,708 |
15,555 |
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QoQ Growth |
5.9% |
-4.8% |
-9.6% |
-8.8% |
-6.5% |
2.5% |
8.6% |
13.5% |
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YoY Growth |
18.1% |
8.6% |
-5.2% |
-16.8% |
-26.5% |
-20.9% |
-5.0% |
18.1% |
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Source: MIC, February 2010 |
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More information can be found in the following MIC report: The Taiwanese DSL Industry, 1Q 2010
For future receipt of press releases, or more information about MIC research findings, please contact MIC Public Relations.
About MIC
Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. https://mic.iii.org.tw/english
About ITIS
The Industry and Technology Intelligence Services (ITIS) project is managed by the Department of Industrial Technology of Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. As part of the project, research is conducted in a variety of fields, including the ICT sector. The project serves both the public and private sector.